The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — increased notably in May to 0.21, from -0.18 in April. Crucially, this was the first time since March 2023 that the index is in positive territory, signaling that global vendors are working at capacity and that supply chains are at their busiest for more than a year.
A key factor behind the index’s increase in May was a further improvement in global manufacturing demand, leading factories to ramp up their purchases of raw materials, commodities and components. Purchasing growth was especially strong in Asia, particularly in key exporting countries such as China, India and South Korea.
Suppliers to North America also got busier during May, with their capacity slightly stretched as a result. This partly reflected more supportive demand conditions for businesses in the U.S. and Mexico. The European market, which has been a laggard since mid-2022, improved notably, especially in the U.K.
Globally, reports of backlogs increasing because of staff shortages at suppliers of critical goods and inputs hit their highest in almost a year-and-a-half in May, suggesting capacity expansion is required to meet existing and future orders. Overall, this paints an optimistic picture for the outlook in H2 2024 for global supply chains.
“The broad-based nature of the breakout we’re seeing in May is a hugely encouraging sign for the global economy going into the second half of 2024,” explained Mudit Kumar, vice president, GEP Consulting. “If this trend continues, businesses can expect renewed efforts by vendors to raise prices, especially given the recent surge in the cost of many commodities.”
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