NJ Election Trends & Behaviors Discussed at Public Policy Forum

By Anthony Birritteri, Editor-in-Chief On Nov 29, 2023

The money, the message, the tactics, the cycle; so many factors are in play during an election, and at yesterday’s Public Policy Forum, hosted by the New Jersey Business & Industry Association, political reporters and experts dove into why Republicans did not gain seats in the Legislature this past Nov. 7, even though the GOP thought it would do well.

Dr. Benjamin Dworkin, founding director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship, said election night was rough for Republicans who thought they would gain more seats due to factors such as redistricting and an expected low-voter turnout because this was not a national or statewide race that would bring out the larger number of registered Democrats as compared with registered Republicans in the state. Additionally, this year was the sixth year of a two-term governor’s administration, which, historically has shown that governor’s party losing seats, according to Dworkin.

He said Republicans thought they could campaign on “hot issues,” such as dead whales washing up on the Jersey shore, the threat of banning gas stoves as part of the state’s clean energy initiatives, and sex education curriculum in public schools.

With all of these issues, “you can’t fault the GOP leadership for thinking this was going to be a good year to pick up seats,” Dworkin told the audience.

Yet, the GOP did not capitalize on these issues.

Among the reasons Democrats did so well included money. Being in the majority for the past 20 years, Dworkin said it is easier for Democrats to raise money than Republicans. And, since there was no statewide or national election to offset the use of this money, it was used for local races. “So, when you have that kind of monetary superiority in terms of being able to help in competitive districts, which the Democrats were able to do, it had a much bigger impact,” Dworkin explained.

Jay Redd, managing director of Stono Public Affairs, agreed, saying that without a gubernatorial or senatorial race, the Democrats were able to focus on real specific races, such as in District 3, where former Assemblyman John Burzichelli beat one-term Republican incumbent Ed Durr. “The Democrats put folks in who really spoke to the districts and had real good connections with voters. They could focus on issues important to the local areas. They did a good job on that point,” Redd commented.

Jeanette Hoffman, president of Marathon Public Affairs, LLC, explained that candidate recruitment played a big role in many districts. “There were only three or four competitive districts in the entire race, and the Democrats ran effective candidates in each and every one of them,” Hoffman said, adding that many Democratic candidates also revealed their independence from views held by Gov. Phil Murphy, such as Burzichelli’s stance against the state’s electric vehicle mandate.

On the issues side, Alex Zdan, a former political journalist with News 12 NJ and now with the Organized Crime and Corruption Project, said the Democrats had a better messaging apparatus than Republicans did on abortion. “The Republicans’ issues did not move enough people to the polls as the Democratic message on abortion,” he said. Zdan also explained that affordability was another issue that was top of mind for voters. “People are focused on paying their utility and rent bills, so affordability and fiscal issues will always be relevant to a large number of voters,” he said.

“The Democrats had the message of abortion [rights] and affordability, with abortion being about 80% of their message,” Dworkin said. “Affordability – talking about the ANCHOR and StayNJ property tax relief programs – was the second part of that.”

Regarding tactics, the vote by mail (VBM) program that the Democrats took advantage of is a real problem for the Republican Party, Dworkin explained. “This is not just a technology issue. This is a voter behavior situation. Every year in which the Democrats continue to get their hardcore folks used to VBM, just makes their lead – in terms of this process –that much stronger,” he said. “The Republican leadership gets it, the Republican consultants get it, but the Republican base is hesitant for any number of reasons, the least of which are concerns highlighted by the former president (Trump).”

Next year, there will be a U.S. Senate race in New Jersey. Democratic incumbent Senator Robert Menendez, who has been indicted on bribery and conspiring to act as a foreign agent charges, will face first lady Tammy Murphy and Congressman Andy Kim in the primary race.

Redd commented that Tammy Murphy has assembled a formidable group of support for herself. Dworkin, meanwhile, said there may be some negative reaction about the wife of sitting governor running for the U.S. Senate. “This whole thing could backfire on Murphy,” he said.

Being that 2024 will also be a presidential election year, it will be difficult for a Republican running for the U.S. Senate to win, said Dworkin. “Additionally, Republican candidates – Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner and Congressman Jeff Van Drew – are both well tied to the Trump world, and he has not been the best party standard (bearer) for Republicans in New Jersey. That makes it even more of an uphill battle for them.”

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