Most small and midsize U.S. business leaders expect continued growth for their companies this year amid a less robust economic environment, according to the annual JPMorgan Chase Business Leaders Outlook survey. Three out of 4 businesses – 76% of midsize companies and 74% of small ones – are optimistic about their own performance, and the majority expect to grow sales this year (70% of midsize companies and 62% of small ones). They’re leaning into this expected growth through measures including more widespread adoption of new technology and increased hiring.
The national and global business outlooks are more cautious, with midsize companies in particular reporting a drop in optimism from 2019. While more than half of midsize (59%) and small (52%) businesses remain optimistic about the national economy, this marks a decline of 14 and 3 points from a year ago, respectively. Optimism about the global economy is also down for midsize companies, which are more likely to have exposure to international markets: 24% are optimistic compared to 39% in 2019. Among small businesses, global optimism is steady at 40% compared to 38% in 2019.
“Businesses are becoming used to a new normal as the pace of economic expansion naturally settles down,” said Jim Glassman, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase. “But it’s important to note that slowing economic growth isn’t a sign of weakness, and many of the concerns business leaders have point toward an economy that’s running at its full potential.”
Leaning into Disruption:
When it comes to preparing for disruption, even more business leaders are mobilizing to make changes now compared to 2019: 89% of midsize companies and 61% of small ones report taking actions including purchasing cyber insurance, creating contingency plans and designating individuals and teams to identify threats and opportunities. Businesses are also embracing emerging technologies to increase efficiencies and reach customers more directly.
“In an era of rapid technological change, businesses are demonstrating their resiliency and taking steps to future-proof their companies,” said John Simmons, head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries at JPMorgan Chase. “Harnessing new tools and technologies and remaining agile will help accelerate growth in today’s competitive environment.”
Hiring from a Shrinking Talent Pool:
Businesses want to hire to prepare for an expected uptick in sales, but a limited supply of qualified candidates is making it increasingly difficult to do so.
Setting Sights on Business Abroad:
Despite geopolitical and trade-related concerns, midsize businesses remain heavily invested overseas and are continuing to expand into new international markets at earlier stages in their lifecycles. Nearly half (47%) of midsize businesses have sales outside the U.S., with an additional 14% planning to establish international sales or operations in the next three years.
Unexpected Growth is Common:
Many small businesses (69%) report having experienced unexpected growth and of these companies, 91% have gone through it more than once. While small business leaders feel largely positive about the growth, they acknowledge having to work longer hours and purchase more supplies and inventory as a result.
“Unexpected growth is a good problem to have but it can be stressful for small business owners,” said JPMorgan Chase Business Banking CEO Jen Roberts. “They have to reassess their short and long-term strategies, which could mean managing their cash flow more efficiently, incentivizing staff, or investing in technology to help them scale.”
Planning For the New Decade:
Businesses should get comfortable with today’s complex operating environment, and keep the following considerations in mind as they plan for the year ahead:
For more information on the JPMorgan Chase Business Leaders Outlook, please view the midsize and small business reports.
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