Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at January Mortgage Data: Delinquencies Up Sharply; Prepayment Rate Drops

On Feb 22, 2016

The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. reports the following “first look” at January 2016 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

– Delinquency rate up 6.6 percent in January; back above 5 percent nationally for the first time in 11 months.

– Prepayment rate (historically a good indicator of refinance activity) drops 29 percent to its lowest level since February 2014.

– Foreclosure sales (completions) up nearly 16 percent following holiday moratoriums.

– Active foreclosure inventory continues to decline; down 26 percent from last year.

Total US loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): 5.09%
Month-over-month change: 6.62%
Year-over-year change: -7.10%

Total US foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 1.30%
Month-over-month change: -4.53%
Year-over-year change: -25.69%

Total US foreclosure starts: 71,900
Month-over-month change: -7.94%
Year-over-year change: -22.94%

Monthly Prepayment Rate (SMM): 0.81%
Month-over-month change: -28.67%
Year-over-year change: -7.88%

Foreclosure Sales as % of 90+: 2.17%
Month-over-month change: 15.61%
Year-over-year change: 24.76%

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 2,575,000
Month-over-month change: 167,000
Year-over-year change: -189,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 831,000
Month-over-month change: 23,000
Year-over-year change: -229,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 659,000
Month-over-month change: -30,000
Year-over-year change: -226,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 3,234,000
Month-over-month change: 137,000
Year-over-year change: -415,000

Top 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

Mississippi:        13.00%
Louisiana:          10.49%
New Jersey:       10.38%
Alabama:             9.25%
West Virginia:      9.19%

Bottom 5 States by Non-Current* Percentage

South Dakota:    3.50%
Minnesota:         3.29%
Alaska:              3.24%
Colorado:           3.03%
North Dakota:     2.41%

Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage

Mississippi:        4.11%
Louisiana:          2.95%
Alabama:           2.86%
Maine:               2.55%
Tennessee:        2.42%

Top 5 States by 6-Month Improvement in Non-Current* Percentage

Oregon:             -4.73%
Washington       -4.42%
Nevada:             -3.57%
Florida:              -3.51%
Hawaii:              -2.01%

Top 5 States by 6-Month Deterioration in Non-Current* Percentage

North Dakota:    14.54%
West Virginia:    11.71%
Arizona:              9.74%
Virginia:              9.57%
California:            9.42%

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Notes:

1)         Totals are extrapolated based on Black Knight Financial Services’ loan-level database of mortgage assets.
2)         All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand.

Related Articles: