DEP’s Proposed Land Use Rules Will Sink Economy

At Issue

By Ray Cantor, NJBIA Deputy Chief Government Affairs Officer On Oct 30, 2024

The Department of Environmental Protection recently proposed a massive, 1,059-page land use rule, ostensibly, to address sea level rise due to climate change. We believe DEP needs to go back to the drawing board.

This mandate would have negative impacts on affordable housing, economic growth, urban redevelopment, and shore tourism, but here I will focus on two areas of concern: the creation of vast no-build zones and DEP’s reliance on outdated and poorly supported science.

The rule would create regulatory areas called “Inundation Risk Zones” and set criteria for any new, expanded, redeveloped, or substantially improved development in an IRZ. Buildings would need to be 5 feet above existing flood elevation standards, which may not be feasible for many houses or lots. An alternative analysis would also be required and that may result in building permit denials.

Additionally, a mandatory deed notice would be placed on IRZ properties falsely telling future purchasers the property will be underwater one day, thereby lowering property values and impacting local property taxes. Finally, and most importantly, the IRZ would be deemed a critical environmental site that subjects properties to a 3% impervious cover standard, which is by definition a “no-build” standard. 

While we recognize sea levels are rising, as they have for thousands of years, we absolutely disagree with DEP’s projection of a 5-foot sea level rise (SLR) by the end of the century. DEP is relying on a low-confidence (17%) data point from a 2019 non-peer reviewed scientific report that uses outdated science and does not comport with projections of experts in the field.

Since that 2019 report, there have been several major studies that have rejected the 5-foot SLR projection. The authors of the 2019 report analyzed these latest studies and compared them to the 5-foot projection. Their updated analysis states the 2019 report relied on low confidence assumptions. In other words, a 5-foot sea level rise won’t happen, and DEP knows it.

Given the tremendous economic and societal impacts of this proposed standard, DEP should use a likely sea level rise standard of 2 feet, which is in line with generally accepted national and international projections and would make New Jersey the most protective state in the nation. If sea level rise is shown to be trending higher, we have 75 years to adjust.

We urge DEP to go back to square one and propose strategies that favor resiliency, instead of rules that favor retreat.

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